New York, 13 September 2006 – The Security Council will hold a meeting at 10 am Thursday, 14 September, to conduct its second straw poll on candidates for Secretary-General. As in July’s straw poll, the results will not be “color-coded” and thus will not reveal the permanent members’ votes. The straw poll will thus only give a general indication of the support for the candidates, but however will serve to provide the heads of state and governments coming into town for the General Assembly opening debate next week with a framework within which to set their priorities for meetings with candidates while in New York.

Since the first straw poll in July, Prince Zeid Ra’ad Zeid Al-Hussein, Jordan’s ambassador the UN, has been nominated as the fifth official candidate. The other declared candidates are Ban Ki-Moon, Jayantha Dhapanala, Shashi Tharoor, and Surakiart Sathirathai. The results of the first poll were reported as follows:

It is uncertain whether the delegations in New York at this point have gotten clear direction from their capitols about encouraging and discouraging candidates. Tomorrow’s results may thus only reflect ambassadors’ opinions and relationships with candidates, rather than official preferences. These limited instructions from capitols may also be the reason for not using colored ballots at this stage.

It is hoped that the outcome of the poll will attract new candidates. It is rumored that China, a permanent member, strongly wants a Southeast Asian candidate and does not consider a Middle Eastern candidate such as Prince Zeid to be truly Asian. Therefore, China currently is supportive of all Southeast Asian candidates. Russia, another permanent member, has expressed its support for Asian candidates, possibly out of a desire to discourage Eastern European countries from making a nomination.

South Korean candidate Ban had the highest number of “encourage” votes in the first poll and he is expected to receive a similar level of support tomorrow. He is reported to have a large campaign apparatus based in Seoul, from where staff have been visiting capitols and meeting with both high-level and lower-level state officials. He is the only candidate reported to have such a large campaign in progress.

Prince Zeid is well known among ambassadors in New York and respected for his role in recent UN reform processes, but he is relatively unknown in capitols. This could make tomorrow’s straw poll important for him in attracting the attention of leaders visiting next week.

Tharoor is nominated by India. Speculation that Pakistan would nominate a candidate began immediately after India’s nomination, and Security Council sources indicate that they continue to expect Pakistan to advance a candidate to counter India’s.

It is uncertain how Dhanapala and Surakiart will do in the poll. Thailand recently objected to rumors that ASEAN countries are hoping for Surakiart to withdraw so they could put forward a new candidate.

Delegations will be instructed to keep the 14 September results confidential; only the candidates and their nominating states are to receive the official results. But despite the secrecy, governments and the media will likely be able to assemble and publicize the results fairly quickly. The July straw poll’s “confidential” results were known within hours.