New York, 29 September 2006 – The Security Council informally registered opinions on the seven candidates for UN Secretary-General yesterday. It was the third straw poll the Council has held since beginning the selection process in July. Like the previous two, yesterday’s poll contained a significant degree of uncertainty because the opinions of the permanent members (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States) were not differentiated from those of the non-permanent members (Argentina, Republic of the Congo, Denmark, Ghana, Greece, Japan, Peru, Qatar, Slovakia, United Republic of Tanzania).

The scores are reported on the weblog UNSG.org.

Like Ashraf Ghani and Zeid Ra’ad Zeid al-Hussein, Jayantha Dhanapala of Sri Lanka received only three “encouragement” ballots, and he ended his candidacy on Thursday. He had been nominated by Sri Lanka and was one of the first candidates to be nominated this year. Sri Lanka’s statement said that it hoped “this action will facilitate the election of the emerging most favoured candidate.”

Though still solidly the lead candidate with 13 “encourages,” 1 “discourage,” and 1 “no opinion,” Ban’s success is not assured because the “discourage” ballot could have come from a non-permanent member. The next straw poll (Monday, 2 October) will distinguish permanent members’ votes from non-permanent members’ for the first time and will provide much more information on members’ preferences. However, as of today Ban has the support of at least three permanent members. He is also the only candidate with nine positive votes, the minimum number needed to gain the Council’s formal support.

The “discourage” and “no opinion” ballots for Ban possibly were used to prevent a conclusive outcome yesterday, which some members may have considered premature. It also may indicate an interest in considering still-undeclared candidates.

Another possibility – reported in the New York Sun on 29 September – is that “the two unidentified countries that did not vote to ‘encourage’ Mr. Ban yesterday might have withheld their support with the hope of gaining leverage to secure top U.N. positions.”

The interest in extending the selection process may lead to more “discourage” ballots on Monday. If such ballots come from a permanent member they will be considered translatable into vetoes in a formal vote. In this case, the formal vote likely would be put off in the interest of gaining consensus around one candidate, and the process could take longer than the Council had planned – early October. Indeed, Foreign Minister Maduro of Venezuela said on 28 September, “This debate is just beginning…. We want someone who truly represents the needs and the aspirations of the people.”